Legislature(2009 - 2010)SENATE FINANCE 532

02/11/2009 09:00 AM Senate FINANCE


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09:05:53 AM Start
09:06:07 AM Overview:
10:38:05 AM Adjourn
* first hearing in first committee of referral
+ teleconferenced
= bill was previously heard/scheduled
+ Overview: Retirement Trust Performance TELECONFERENCED
Review by Dept of Revenue & Alaska
Retirement Management Board
+ Constitutional Budget Reserve Performance TELECONFERENCED
Review
-- Testimony <Invitation Only> --
+ Bills Previously Heard/Scheduled TELECONFERENCED
                  SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE                                                                                      
                     February 11, 2009                                                                                          
                         9:05 a.m.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
9:05:53 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
CALL TO ORDER                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman called the Senate  Finance Committee meeting                                                                   
to order at 9:05 a.m.                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS PRESENT                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Senator Lyman Hoffman, Co-Chair                                                                                                 
Senator Bert Stedman, Co-Chair                                                                                                  
Senator Charlie Huggins, Vice-Chair                                                                                             
Senator Johnny Ellis                                                                                                            
Senator Kim Elton                                                                                                               
Senator Donny Olson                                                                                                             
Senator Joe Thomas                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
MEMBERS ABSENT                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
None                                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
ALSO PRESENT                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Michael   O'Leary,    Executive   Vice   President,    Callan                                                                   
Associates;  Mike Burns, Executive  Director, Permanent  Fund                                                                   
Corporation,  Department of  Revenue.  Jerry Burnett,  Deputy                                                                   
Commissioner,  Division of Treasury,  Department of  Revenue;                                                                   
Gary  Bader,  Chief Investment  Officer,  Treasury  Division,                                                                   
Department of  Revenue; Pat Galvin, Commissioner,  Department                                                                   
of Revenue.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
SUMMARY                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
^Overview:                                                                                                                      
Retirement Trust Performance Review                                                                                             
Constitutional Budget Reserve Performance Review                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
9:06:07 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MICHAEL   O'LEARY,    EXECUTIVE   VICE   PRESIDENT,    CALLAN                                                                   
ASSOCIATES, gave a presentation  designed to answer questions                                                                   
that arose  during the  Senate Finance  Committee meeting  of                                                                   
2/10/09. He stated that he was  misconstrued in press reports                                                                   
regarding statements  made during the 2/10/09  Senate Finance                                                                   
Committee  meeting. He  stressed that  Callan Associates  did                                                                   
not anticipate the  financial meltdown and that  the firm was                                                                   
clearly incorrect in their view of the recovery.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  asked if Mr.  O'Leary was referring  to the                                                                   
magnitude  or the direction  of the  financial meltdown.  Mr.                                                                   
O'Leary replied  that he  was referring  to the magnitude  of                                                                   
the situation.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  O'Leary  proceeded  using   a  PowerPoint  presentation,                                                                   
"Initial  Response to  Committee Questions"  (Copy on  File).                                                                   
The first question was in regard  to the National Association                                                                   
of College and  University Business Officers  (NACUBO) study.                                                                   
The  graph  on   Slide  2  illustrates  that   there  are  77                                                                   
institutions  with  assets  greater   than  $1  billion.  The                                                                   
dispersion policies  in the institutions are  provided within                                                                   
the  NACUBO study.  Slide 3  lists  the largest  institutions                                                                   
participating  in  the study.  He  noted  that 20  funds  had                                                                   
assets of more than $4 billion.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  O'Leary  turned  to  the   committee's  second  question                                                                   
regarding  the  Alaska  Retirement  Management  Board  (ARMB)                                                                   
Public  Employees'  Retirement  System  (PERS)  and  Teachers                                                                   
Retirement  System  (TRS) policies.  The  question  concerned                                                                   
expectations for PERS and TRS  policies and subsequent action                                                                   
two  years  ago. He  noted  that  many people  expect  higher                                                                   
returns in  the near future, but  he opined that  the returns                                                                   
will not overcome  the money lost during the  market downturn                                                                   
in 2008.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
9:11:00 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  O'Leary explained  Slide  4 "ARMB  and Alaska  Permanent                                                                   
Fund Corporation  (APFC) Policies  Throughout Recent  Years."                                                                   
The chart illustrates that both  the ARMB and the AFPC boards                                                                   
annually review  investment policies  and update them  as new                                                                   
projections   become  available.   Changes   are  minor   and                                                                   
infrequent.  The slide  depicts  a comparison  of   the  ARMB                                                                   
policies for PERS and TERS and  the APFC funds for FY06/FY07,                                                                   
FY07/FY08, FY08/FY09, and FY09/FY10.  Neither board adopted a                                                                   
policy for  FY09 and  FY10 so the  difference is  in expected                                                                   
returns from lower values.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  O'Leary explained  the difference  in expected  returns.                                                                   
The  permanent fund  had a  heavier  fixed income  allocation                                                                   
without  other assets.  In the  case of  the ARMB,  farmland,                                                                   
energy  investment,  and  timber   are  grouped  together  as                                                                   
"other" assets. In  FY07 and FY08, the policies  were changed                                                                   
for  both  ARMB  and  AFPC.  In the  case  of  the  AFPC,  an                                                                   
introduction   of   the   other   category   established   an                                                                   
infrastructure investment as part of the policy.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
9:15:09 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. O'Leary addressed "Important Notes" on Slide 4:                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
   1. Composition of "other" category varies by fund                                                                            
     ARMB - farmland, energy, timber, and Treasury Inflation                                                                    
     Protected Securities (TIPS)                                                                                                
     APFC - Infrastructure                                                                                                      
   2. Both funds include sub-sectors within fixed income                                                                        
   3. APFC actual allocation to Private Equity is much more                                                                     
     recent and therefore underfunded relative to ARMB.                                                                         
   4. Implementation (structure) approaches to public equity                                                                    
     allocation vary  by fund. Big  difference is the  use fo                                                                   
     "global  equity managers  by APFC.  We have  apportioned                                                                   
     global  to domestic  and international  to help  ease of                                                                   
     comparison.                                                                                                                
   5. Neither board has yet adopted a policy for the 2009-10                                                                    
     fiscal period. We simply applied new projections to the                                                                    
     current policies.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair   Stedman    requested   the   aggregate    of   the                                                                   
Constitutional  Budget Reserve  (CBR). Mr. O'Leary  explained                                                                   
that Callan Associates does not work with the CBR.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  O'Leary introduced  the graph  on  Slide 5,  "Cumulative                                                                   
Wealth." He  suggested that if  a digression was made  to the                                                                   
beginning  of  calendar  year   2007,  and  began  with  $100                                                                   
achieving  the expected  return for  ARMB, a  growth of  8.05                                                                   
percent  would be  seen,  represented by  the  red line.  The                                                                   
yellow  line represents  the  APFC  expected  return of  7.77                                                                   
percent. The  green and  blue lines  depict actual  events in                                                                   
calendar  year 2008,  which were  typical of  other funds  of                                                                   
this type.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
9:18:27 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. O'Leary continued  that the initial $100  declined to $85                                                                   
in the  case of  ARMB and  $81 in  the case  of the APFC.  He                                                                   
noted that the  ARMB return for 2008 is not  yet complete and                                                                   
results  are   not  typically  available  until   next  week.                                                                   
Preliminary 2008  real estate numbers were used  to create an                                                                   
estimated  return   for  the  committee's   deliberation.  He                                                                   
guessed that the fund was down between 22 and 24 percent.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  asked if the actual return  for January was                                                                   
the starting  point. Mr.  O'Leary answered  that he  used the                                                                   
$80.98  for the APFC  as the  beginning value  and then  grew                                                                   
that by  the expected return  given the new return  estimates                                                                   
seen on  Slide 4. The  APFC was grown  at 9 percent  for next                                                                   
five years.  The ARMB  was grown  at 9.09  percent given  its                                                                   
policy  mix for  the  next five  years.  With the  optimistic                                                                   
assumption, the  result at the  end of calendar year  2013 is                                                                   
for  returns comfortably  above  the  initial  $100 but  well                                                                   
below  numbers  that  would  have   been  achieved  with  the                                                                   
anticipated amounts prior to the financial meltdown.                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
9:21:46 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator Thomas asked about a comparison  of numbers for 2013.                                                                   
Mr.  O'Leary stated  that  some fluctuation  in  the rate  of                                                                   
return was anticipated.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman  supposed  that  there  was  a  significant                                                                   
change  in  the ending  dollar  value  in 2013.  Mr.  O'Leary                                                                   
agreed. He stated that there is  a tendency for the public to                                                                   
believe  that  a  higher  return   is  anticipated,  but  the                                                                   
severity of the 2008 downturn  was so great that it will take                                                                   
a long time to recover.                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
9:23:30 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
MIKE BURNS,  EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, PERMANENT  FUND CORPORATION,                                                                   
DEPARTMENT   OF  REVENUE,   addressed   the  Permanent   Fund                                                                   
Corporation Asset Allocation (Copy  on File). He felt that in                                                                   
light of market place changes  the long term investment is an                                                                   
advantage. The year has been arduous,  but the difficulty was                                                                   
not anticipated.  Different action  would have been  taken if                                                                   
the  market   collapse  had   been  anticipated.   The  asset                                                                   
allocation  is  fine  for  the  long-term,  but  it  was  not                                                                   
advantageous in the fall.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Thomas  requested  a projection  for  calendar  year                                                                   
2009.  He asked what  would happen  in the  event of  another                                                                   
market  decline  with  the magnitude  of  2008.  Mr.  O'Leary                                                                   
stated that  he did not believe  it likely to  happen because                                                                   
of policy  actions taken to  push liquidity into  the system.                                                                   
He  explained  that he  was  focusing  on the  difference  in                                                                   
interest  rate levels  as opposed  to an  economic plan.  The                                                                   
market  fall led  to a  credit freeze.  He did  not expect  a                                                                   
similar situation to occur again.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
9:27:43 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  asked about  a potential market  decline of                                                                   
lesser magnitude,  (10 or 15  percent). He requested  a graph                                                                   
representing a market decline of 10 percent.                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Elton asked  about  the asset  allocation  decisions                                                                   
made  in   May.  He  asked   about  possible   advantages  in                                                                   
increasing the  timetable to remain  ahead of  the investment                                                                   
curve, given the rapid market change in 2008.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burns  answered that  premature decisions  can lead  to a                                                                   
gamble with market timing. He  explained that different asset                                                                   
classes were not the issue. Some  weakness was noticed in the                                                                   
credit  markets  two years  ago  leading  to a  $500  million                                                                   
allocation to distressed  debt, but the credit  cycle was the                                                                   
focus as opposed to the collapse of the financial system.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
9:31:28 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. O'Leary stated  that the commitment to distress  was made                                                                   
two years ago with the understanding  that the money would be                                                                   
drawn   down  gradually   by   the  manager   as   distressed                                                                   
opportunities  arose.  He  anticipated   a  more  traditional                                                                   
credit cycle. In addition, assets  are adjusted in portfolios                                                                   
to  reflect  the best  thinking  in  regard to  outlook.  The                                                                   
global  equity managers  have  latitude to  shift money  from                                                                   
abroad to domestic accounts.                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair   Stedman   requested   assistance   regarding   the                                                                   
difference  between the ARMB  is a  board allocation  and the                                                                   
permanent fund allocation. The  Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD)                                                                   
has a longer time horizon than  the retirement fund without a                                                                   
demand on liquidity. He asked  for help understanding why the                                                                   
PFD  doesn't have  a higher  risk level  than the  retirement                                                                   
fund.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr. O'Leary answered that the  movement in the permanent fund                                                                   
has been toward the higher return  and higher volatility. The                                                                   
fund is the most  permanent of the pools with  the least long                                                                   
term  liquidity  requirements.  The permanent  fund  is  more                                                                   
conservative   because  of   legislative  restrictions.   The                                                                   
limiting factor  in the permanent  fund is the  limitation on                                                                   
the  payment   of  distributions   with  regard   to  earning                                                                   
reserves.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
9:36:19 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. O'Leary explained  that the permanent fund  is similar to                                                                   
the  pension  system  with funded  private  equity  exposure.                                                                   
Investment policies in the pension  system will eventually be                                                                   
more  conservative.  The pension  system  will  have a  lower                                                                   
chance of achieving the earnings  assumption of 8.25 percent,                                                                   
which equates  to a  real return of  5.5 percent  requiring a                                                                   
heavy equity commitment. The expectation  is that the pension                                                                   
system  will be in  a net  inflow position  for a  protracted                                                                   
period.  The policy  will be  more  conservative because  the                                                                   
liquidity needs of the system will be growing.                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Thomas  asked for  an  explanation of  an  actuarial                                                                   
assumption  of  8.25  percent  equating  to  5.5  percent  in                                                                   
reality. Mr. O'Leary answered  that he was simply subtracting                                                                   
the estimated  2.75 percent inflation from the  8.25 percent.                                                                   
There is  an embedded inflation  assumption higher  than 2.75                                                                   
percent.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  concluded the presentation and  moved on to                                                                   
the retirement trust performance review.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
JERRY  BURNETT, DEPUTY  COMMISSIONER,  DIVISION OF  TREASURY,                                                                   
DEPARTMENT    OF   REVENUE,    introduced   the    PowerPoint                                                                   
presentation,  "Investment  Operation  Orientation:  Treasury                                                                   
Division, Portfolio Management  Section. February 2009" (Copy                                                                   
on File).                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  requested that the discussion  point remain                                                                   
on the CBR and  its policy procedures rather  than the Public                                                                   
Employees' Retirement Trust Fund  which required only a brief                                                                   
update on status and performance.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
GARY  BADER,  CHIEF INVESTMENT  OFFICER,  TREASURY  DIVISION,                                                                   
DEPARTMENT OF  REVENUE explained Slide  2 and the  outline of                                                                   
resources available  to the  ARMB. The retirement  management                                                                   
board uses  the staff of the  Department of Revenue  (DOR) as                                                                   
it's investment  arm. An Investment Advisory  Committee (IAC)                                                                   
consisting of  three individuals  is available to  the board.                                                                   
The  IAC has  a general  consultant  (Mr.  O'Leary), a  Chief                                                                   
Investment Officer  (CIO) (Mr. Bader),  and the staff  to the                                                                   
CIO.   The  general  consultant  exercises control  over  the                                                                   
external asset management  of funds, as well  as managing $16                                                                   
billion internally, of which $2  billion is the board's fixed                                                                   
income.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
9:43:08 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Bader discussed Slide 3 and 4 "Fiduciary of the Fund":                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
   · AS 14.25.007                                                                                                               
   · Consider status of the fund's investments and                                                                              
     liabilities                                                                                                                
   · Determine the appropriate investment objectives                                                                            
   · Establish investment policies to achieve objective                                                                         
   · Act only in regard to the best interest of the system's                                                                    
     plan and beneficiaries                                                                                                     
   · Nine Members                                                                                                               
   · Establish Investment Policies                                                                                              
   · Review Actuarial Earnings Assumption                                                                                       
   · Establish Asset Allocation                                                                                                 
   · Provide Investment Options                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Bader explained the functions  of the ARMB consultant Mr.                                                                   
O'Leary (Slide 5):                                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
   · Assert Allocation/Strategy                                                                                                 
   · Performance Measurement                                                                                                    
   · General Consulting                                                                                                         
        o General                                                                                                               
        o Specific                                                                                                              
        o Assist in Asset Manager Searches                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Bader described  that  the Investment  Advisory  Council                                                                   
(Slide 6):                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
   · Permitted by Statute                                                                                                       
   · Three to Five Members                                                                                                      
   · Review and Advise on Investment Policy, Strategy and                                                                       
     Procedures                                                                                                                 
        o Dr. Jerrold Mitchell                                                                                                  
        o Dr. William W. Jennings                                                                                               
        o George Wilson                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Bader  discussed the  "Asset Allocation Decision"  (Slide                                                                   
7):                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
   · Investment Objective                                                                                                       
   · Risk Tolerance                                                                                                             
   · Expected Return of Each Asset Class                                                                                        
   · Expected Volatility of Each Asset Class                                                                                    
   · Correlation of Performance Between Asset Classes                                                                           
   · Efficient Frontier                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
9:47:02 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Bader  discussed  a  graph  on  Slide  8  depicting  the                                                                   
historical  risk/return  tradeoff. The  graph  gives an  idea                                                                   
over the long  run of how the various asset  classes perform.                                                                   
He explained that the Y axis shows  the investment returns of                                                                   
these asset classes  over a long period of  time (1926-2004).                                                                   
The  X  axis  defines  risk  as  standard  deviation  or  the                                                                   
volatility of the returns.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Bader  explained  another  graph on  Slide  9  depicting                                                                   
standard deviation  and it's impact.  If the expected  return                                                                   
is said to be 6 percent with a  standard deviation of 9, then                                                                   
9 would  be lost from  the expected return  of 6.  A positive                                                                   
standard  deviation would  be 6  plus 9  or a  return of  15.                                                                   
Highly unlikely events  seen at the end of  the graph somehow                                                                   
occur even with low probability.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Bader   described  Slide   10,  which  illustrates   the                                                                   
correlation of asset class returns.  The range of correlation                                                                   
can be plus one to minus one.  Plus one means the stocks move                                                                   
together  and minus  one means  the stocks  move opposite  of                                                                   
each  other.   When  asset  allocations  are   reviewed,  the                                                                   
expected  return of assets,  the volatility  of returns,  and                                                                   
the movement  of returns in  conjunction with each  other are                                                                   
all taken into  account. The product of the  exercise is what                                                                   
is known as an "efficient frontier."                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
9:50:01 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Bader discussed  Slide 11  and  efficient frontiers.  An                                                                   
efficient  frontier  is  a series  of  expectations  where  a                                                                   
person determines  the highest rate of return  for the lowest                                                                   
amount of  volatility. The example  shows a 100  percent cash                                                                   
portfolio with  low return and  low volatility. On  the other                                                                   
side, 100 percent  stocks show greater return  with much more                                                                   
volatility.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Bader reviewed Slide 12 and  the current asset allocation                                                                   
of the ARMB for  the PERS and TRS legacy funds.  He explained                                                                   
that  markets change  and volatility  is  seen, however,  the                                                                   
fund is not automatically rebalanced.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Bader  reviewed Slide 13  and the cumulative  attribution                                                                   
effects seen in  September. He explained that  the return was                                                                   
a  negative  12.89  percent. A  negative  14.51  percent  net                                                                   
manager effect would have been  seen if the target return had                                                                   
been met,  but the  investment managers  did better  than the                                                                   
established index or benchmark  so the net manager effect was                                                                   
positive.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Bader reviewed  Slide 14  addressing  the calendar  year                                                                   
September to September  when the ARMB fund was in  the top 23                                                                   
percent  of public  funds. If  the fund would  have been  all                                                                   
fixed income  the state would  have been close to  number one                                                                   
because of the  down market. He explained that  years two and                                                                   
three exemplify  both up and  down markets with  good returns                                                                   
for both.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
9:53:36 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Bader presented  Slide 15  regarding the  impact of  the                                                                   
downward  market  on the  expected  rate  of return  and  the                                                                   
earning assumption  of the  PERS fund.  He compared  the base                                                                   
used  in 2007,  assuming that  the portfolio  has a  negative                                                                   
22.24 percent,  to the  actuary for  the retirement  systems.                                                                   
The actuary assumes that the fund  will earn 8.25 percent. If                                                                   
the  beginning is  down 22  percent adding  the 8.25  percent                                                                   
brings the  fund down 30 percent.  His estimate was  that the                                                                   
fund would have to earn 50 percent,  which is a very unlikely                                                                   
outcome.                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman understood  that the  actuarial target  was                                                                   
8.25 percent and  the portfolio target was 8.11  percent. Mr.                                                                   
Bader  stated   that  the  8.25  percent  is   the  actuarial                                                                   
assumption over  a long period  of time, generally  30 years.                                                                   
He admitted  difficulty reconciling  the ARMB target  return.                                                                   
The  actuary  considers  the   inflation  assumption  of  3.5                                                                   
percent  over  the  next  30  years.  Mr.  O'Leary's  current                                                                   
inflation  assumption  is 2.75  percent  last  year and  this                                                                   
coming year.  There is a  disconnect when looking  at nominal                                                                   
returns. If the chart were graphed  in terms of real returns,                                                                   
he  opined   that  it  would   be  close  to   the  actuarial                                                                   
prediction.                                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman asked about the  8.25 percent which may be a                                                                   
high estimate  and require some response. He  stated concerns                                                                   
that market dynamics  were moving away from  8.25 percent and                                                                   
as the market moves down, the liability gap increases.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
9:57:38 AM                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett  outlined a comparison  of major funds  under the                                                                   
permanent  fund,  the  ARMB,   and  the  projections  of  the                                                                   
Commissioner   of  Revenue.   He   addressed  asset   values,                                                                   
purposes,  and  market  values for  12/31/08  versus  current                                                                   
market  values. He  used Slide  16 as  a reference  beginning                                                                   
with the general fund. The market  value for the general fund                                                                   
fluctuates, but  the primary difference  in market  value for                                                                   
the general  fund is appropriations  out and revenue  in. The                                                                   
three  year actual  returns on  the general  fund are all  in                                                                   
short  and intermediate  term  fixed  income  with a  current                                                                   
balance of $7 billion.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman asked  for clarification  regarding  dates.                                                                   
Mr.  Burnett  answered  that  he was  speaking  of  the  2008                                                                   
calendar year.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  asked for  a definition  of short  term and                                                                   
intermediate  term. Mr.  Bader answered  that the short  term                                                                   
fund is similar to a money market  fund, which is essentially                                                                   
a 90-day account. Co-Chair Stedman  asked if the holdings are                                                                   
beyond five  years. Mr. Bader  explained that there  are some                                                                   
mortgages that  reset. As interest  rates fall and  homes are                                                                   
refinanced  the  mortgage  portfolio is  repaid  quickly.  If                                                                   
interest rates increase, the portfolio  could extend in terms                                                                   
of  length.  Portfolios  with  asset  backed  securities  are                                                                   
subject   to  interest   rate  volatility   and  might   have                                                                   
investments  over five  years,  depending  upon the  interest                                                                   
environment.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
10:00:52 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett pointed out that $4  billion of the $7 billion is                                                                   
money  restricted  for  the  public  school  fund  and  other                                                                   
accounts for tax credits. The  general fund has $3 million in                                                                   
unrestricted funds.                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Hoffman asked if the  SBR exists in the general fund                                                                   
category. Mr.  Burnett answered in the affirmative  and added                                                                   
that the SBR also sits in the General Fund.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman asked  how the SBR  is treated  internally.                                                                   
Mr. Burnett  answered that the SBR  is a part of  the General                                                                   
Fund  and  Other  Non-Segregated  Investments  (GeFONSI)  for                                                                   
investment purposes.  The earnings from  the SBR flow  to the                                                                   
general fund.                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  reviewed that the SBR was  funded last year                                                                   
with  $1 billion  of excess  revenue.  A simple  vote of  the                                                                   
legislature  is required  to access the  funds. The  earnings                                                                   
and  losses  accumulate  to the  general  fund.  Mr.  Burnett                                                                   
agreed that the  general fund would maintain a  balance of $1                                                                   
billion regardless of investment performance.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  asked if the  SBR was comingled  within the                                                                   
general fund?  Mr. Burnett answered that the  investments are                                                                   
comingled.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman asked if a particular  gain or loss could be                                                                   
identified for the SBR. Mr. Burnett  stated that the SBR does                                                                   
not have a separate asset allocation or target return.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett continued  to address the CBR (main  fund), which                                                                   
is the  short  term constitutional  savings account  invested                                                                   
for moderate  risk and  intermediate investment horizon.  The                                                                   
CBR is invested at 100 percent  fixed income: short term at 5                                                                   
percent, intermediate  term at  75 percent, and  broad market                                                                   
at 20  percent. The CBR  has a calendar  year return  of 5.67                                                                   
percent for 2008, a three year  actual return of 5.71 percent                                                                   
and a forecast return of 4.53 percent.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman requested a definition  of moderate risk and                                                                   
intermediate investment horizon.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
10:04:14 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett answered that moderate  risk is fixed income with                                                                   
low volatility.  The intermediate investment horizon  is used                                                                   
for less  than five years and  would not suffer  large losses                                                                   
if appropriated.                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  asked the  duration of  the CBR.  Mr. Bader                                                                   
answered  that the  target asset  allocation  was 20  percent                                                                   
broad market, 75 percent intermediate  term fixed income, and                                                                   
5 percent short-term fixed income.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  informed that the legislative  body had not                                                                   
decided how to respond to the  revenue projection decline and                                                                   
which  accounts would  be used  to meet  liquidity needs.  It                                                                   
appears that  $1.3 billion  will be needed  for FY09.  A high                                                                   
likelihood exists  that the  CBR will be  the source  of that                                                                   
need.  Fiscal  Year  2010  may incur  a  $2  billion  deficit                                                                   
putting the  state at  $3.2 to  $3.3 billion and  liquidating                                                                   
the main  fund of  the CBR. He  expressed concerns  regarding                                                                   
the  policy implementation  of  the use  of the  CBR and  the                                                                   
structure  preventing the  liquidation of  holdings that  the                                                                   
legislature prefers not to liquidate.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                
10:07:17 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Burnett answered  that  the CBR  main  account would  be                                                                   
liquid in  a short period of  time, at the stated  value. The                                                                   
CBR account is  invested to reduce the risk  of losing value.                                                                   
He stated  that when the  legislature makes an  appropriation                                                                   
from the CBR in  the beginning of FY09, the cash  will not be                                                                   
drawn out until some period in  the future. Several months to                                                                   
one year exist  between the need for cash and  the drawing of                                                                   
appropriations to meet the deficit  need. The main account of                                                                   
the CBR is managed to reduce volatility.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett introduced the CBR  (sub-fund), which had a value                                                                   
of  approximately $3.4 million.  The sub fund is a high risk,                                                                   
moderately  long   investment  horizon,  and  has   an  asset                                                                   
allocation of  37 percent fixed  income, 44 percent  domestic                                                                   
equity,  and 19  percent international  equity.  The CBR  sub                                                                   
fund  has a  statutorily  five  year investment  horizon.  He                                                                   
stated that the  commissioner should consider  not using this                                                                   
money for a period of five years.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Hoffman  asked when the  value of the   reported sub                                                                   
fund of the  CBR was $3.4 billion. Mr. Burnett  answered that                                                                   
the $3.4 billion was as of December 31, 2008.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Hoffman asked  if the  fund had  been projected  to                                                                   
make  money  as of  December,  but  lost $200  million  since                                                                   
December  31,  2008.  Mr. Burnett  stated  that  was  correct                                                                   
because the fund  is invested with a five year  time horizon.                                                                   
The sub fund is high risk and  the calendar return was nearly                                                                   
30 percent negative.                                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                
10:11:07 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair   Hoffman  stated   he   had  recently   asked   the                                                                   
commissioner of  the Department  of Revenue for  a projection                                                                   
of the  remainder of the fiscal  year. He could  not remember                                                                   
the exact  amount although it  was substantial.  He explained                                                                   
that  the  commissioner  did  not  know  if  there  would  be                                                                   
positive  returns  for  the  first   30  days,  although  his                                                                   
inclination was  that the state  would see positive  returns.                                                                   
The  committee is  now informed  that the  account lost  $190                                                                   
million dollars  in the first 30  days of the second  half of                                                                   
the year.                                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett  answered that he  was not sure about  the amount                                                                   
in  the  sub  account  of  the   CBR  on  the  day  that  the                                                                   
commissioner was testifying to the subcommittee.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  wanted the commissioner present  to discuss                                                                   
the  policy question  and  the plans  for  managing the  sub-                                                                   
account of the CBR in the future.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
10:12:15 AM         RECESSED                                                                                                  
10:21:42 AM         RECONVENED                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  recognized that there had not  been an FY10                                                                   
update and the committee was flexible  since the price of oil                                                                   
was not determined. The price  of oil could be $71 per barrel                                                                   
or $40 per barrel.  The legislature is in the  policy process                                                                   
of determining  which sources of  funds to address  first. He                                                                   
asked that the sub account be reviewed once more.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Burnett stated  that the sub-fund of the  CBR is invested                                                                   
with a five-year  time horizon, a high risk,  moderately long                                                                   
investment  horizon.  The  sub-account   is  composed  of  37                                                                   
percent fixed  income, 44 percent  domestic equities,  and 19                                                                   
percent  international equities.  The sub-account  has  had a                                                                   
calendar  year return  of negative  29.34  percent and  three                                                                   
year actual  return of  negative 5.17 percent,  but it  has a                                                                   
target  return of 7.61  percent. The  sub-account began  2007                                                                   
with a balance  of $5.76 million and contained  an additional                                                                   
$4.1 billion  added to  it and  now has  a balance of  $3.382                                                                   
billion dollars as of January 31, 2009.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Hoffman  requested the  six month estimated  returns                                                                   
for the CBR.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                
PAT  GALVIN, COMMISSIONER,  DEPARTMENT  OF REVENUE,  answered                                                                   
that he did  not have the requested information  with him. He                                                                   
stated  that  the  department  uses  target  returns  as  the                                                                   
projection for any period in the future.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Hoffman  asked if the projections  presented earlier                                                                   
to the committee  would remain accurate. Mr.  Galvin answered                                                                   
that  the  expectations  are  merely  a  projection  and  the                                                                   
department  is   not  vouching   for  the  accuracy   of  the                                                                   
projection.  The  department  will  continue  to  update  the                                                                   
committee  with  fund  balances   for  the  varying  accounts                                                                   
throughout the budgeting cycle.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                
10:27:22 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Hoffman  stated that the  fund had lost  one billion                                                                   
dollars  for  the  first  seven   months.  He  asked  if  the                                                                   
department  would continue to  invest in  the same  manner or                                                                   
with  a different  strategy.  Mr.  Galvin answered  that  the                                                                   
value  of any  investment strategy  is  consistency. The  sub                                                                   
account  of  the  CBR  will  remain   with  a  similar  asset                                                                   
allocation. The  question, as  he understood it,  was whether                                                                   
the department  was planning to move funds  between accounts.                                                                   
His  answer was  that  the sub  account  will  remain with  a                                                                   
similar asset allocation in the current term.                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Hoffman  asked  how  this strategy  fits  into  the                                                                   
legislative  policy of stretching  the funds  out as  long as                                                                   
possible. He asked  for the anticipated longevity  of the CBR                                                                   
with 50  percent draws on  the fund by  the end of  FY10. Mr.                                                                   
Galvin answered  that the  department's responsibility  is to                                                                   
identify an appropriate mix between  the main account and the                                                                   
sub-account  of the CBR.  The department  can anticipate  the                                                                   
direction of  the budget process  based on various  decisions                                                                   
made while understanding  the savings accounts  and where the                                                                   
amounts will be taken from. Until  other appropriation issues                                                                   
have been settled the department  will not know the projected                                                                   
fund  balances.   The  legislature's  appropriation   process                                                                   
determines the use of the various funds.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
10:31:38 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman   asked  how  the  allocation   rating  was                                                                   
modified  and  implemented  last   year  from  a  policy  and                                                                   
physical perspective  within the  department. He  queried how                                                                   
the   finance    committee   should    interact   with    the                                                                   
commissioner's office.                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                
Mr. Galvin answered that the CBR  sub-account was created ten                                                                   
years ago  with  the statutory direction of a  five year plus                                                                   
target for the investment horizon.  The intent was to have it                                                                   
invested  to  provide  higher  return. The  main  account  is                                                                   
intended to  cover the  first five years  before the  need to                                                                   
access  the sub-account.  Revenue has  increased through  the                                                                   
last couple of years. A draw on  reserves was not anticipated                                                                   
and the  reserve balances were  growing. An interest  existed                                                                   
in seeing  the returns on  the reserve accounts  maximized in                                                                   
the appropriate way given the  expected need of the funds. He                                                                   
had requested  that  the issue  be taken to  the finance  co-                                                                   
chairs.  The  dilemma  was whether  to  have  the  allocation                                                                   
moved, remain  in the main  account, or be reallocated  since                                                                   
the main account was growing.  He asked for feedback from the                                                                   
co-chairs of the finance committees 12 months ago.                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair   Stedman   asked  which   finance   co-chairs   the                                                                   
commissioner was referring to.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
10:34:48 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Galvin  responded  he  had  spoken  with  Representative                                                                   
Chenault  and  Representative  Meyer  of  the  House  Finance                                                                   
Committee,  and  with the  current  Co-Chairs  of the  Senate                                                                   
Finance Committee .                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman  asked if  the commissioner recalled  having                                                                   
the discussion  with him  regarding changing the  allocation.                                                                   
Mr. Galvin  answered that  he did  not have the  conversation                                                                   
himself,  but  requested  that  Deputy  Commissioner  Andrews                                                                   
approach the  finance co-chairs  about this issue.  He stated                                                                   
that he  was seeking feedback  and asking for  correspondence                                                                   
stating  the request  of the  finance  co-chairs because  the                                                                   
House  co-chairs were  particularly  interested  in seeing  a                                                                   
more aggressive strategy with regard to the CBR.                                                                                
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair Stedman asked what the  response was from the Senate                                                                   
co-chairs.  Mr. Galvin  stated  that he  was  not engaged  in                                                                   
direct  communication  with the  co-chairs,  however, it  was                                                                   
relayed to him  that the language would not come  in the form                                                                   
of  a letter,  but  instead  in  budget language.  The  final                                                                   
budget  included  language  stating  that  the  CBR  deposits                                                                   
should be invested  to maximize returns, which  meant placing                                                                   
then in the more aggressive sub-account.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                
Co-Chair  Stedman   stated  that  his  recollection   of  the                                                                   
conversation  with Mr.  Andrews was that  the senate  finance                                                                   
committee had  not agreed to moving  the funds into  the sub-                                                                   
account of the  CBR. He remembered that the  prospect was not                                                                   
well received.                                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                                
Senator Elton  reported understanding moderate  risk accounts                                                                   
and the  roll of  outside advisors.  He asked  if there  were                                                                   
outside advisors  consulted about  the sub-account.  He asked                                                                   
whether the moving  of money between accounts  is an internal                                                                   
process only or if other consultants  advising about the high                                                                   
risk component of the sub-account.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                
10:38:05 AM                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
Mr.  Galvin answered  that  there  are no  consultations  for                                                                   
asset  allocations. The  asset allocation  is developed  with                                                                   
the investment  professional in terms of providing  the asset                                                                   
allocation  to  meet the  statutory  objective  of the  fund,                                                                   
which is to  have returns targeting a five-year  horizon. The                                                                   
goal is to  have the investment remain fairly  liquid because                                                                   
the state may need immediate access to the funds.                                                                               
                                                                                                                                
Senator  Elton understood  the  differences  between the  sub                                                                   
account and  the main  account. He did  not have  an adequate                                                                   
understanding  of  how  investment  decisions  were  made  in                                                                   
regard to the CBR and SBR.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                
ADJOURNMENT                                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                
The meeting was adjourned at 10:40 AM.                                                                                          

Document Name Date/Time Subjects
AS 37 10 430.pdf SFIN 2/11/2009 9:00:00 AM
OLeary Responses 2-11-09.pdf SFIN 2/11/2009 9:00:00 AM
SB 256 CBR Intent.pdf SFIN 2/11/2009 9:00:00 AM
Senate Finance Presentation021109.pdf SFIN 2/11/2009 9:00:00 AM
OLeary Responses 2-12-09.pdf SFIN 2/11/2009 9:00:00 AM